Insights · Solar distribution
Cutting forecast bias by 15 percent across a EUR 6m programme portfolio
Power BI decision dashboards and a KPI and OKR model for a CEE solar distributor, governing roughly EUR 6m of strategic programmes.
- Client
- SOLARKIT Europe Kft.
- Sector
- Solar distribution
- Region
- Budapest / DACH
- Timeline
- Delivered 2024
- Services
- Decision dashboards, KPI and OKR model, Forecast discipline
The challenge: reporting that described the past accurately and predicted nothing
Most distribution businesses have reporting. Fewer have reporting that changes a decision. The common pattern is a set of dashboards that are accurate about what already happened, alongside a forecast that is systematically wrong in the same direction every quarter and is corrected by instinct rather than by method.
Persistent bias in one direction is not noise. It is a signal that the forecasting method has an error built into it, and it can be measured and reduced.
The approach: dashboards tied to decisions, and a governance model over the portfolio
Power BI decision dashboards were built across sales, operations, finance and customer engagement. The organising test was not what data exists but which decision each view is meant to change. A view that no one acts on is a maintenance cost.
Over the top of that, a KPI and OKR model was put in place governing roughly EUR 6m of strategic programmes, so portfolio decisions were made against a stated target rather than against whichever programme had the most recent conversation.
The results: forecast bias down 15 percent
Forecast bias was reduced by 15 percent. That figure is a reduction in systematic error, not a claim about revenue, and it belongs in the same category as a calibration improvement: the business now plans against numbers that miss by less, consistently.
The dashboards cover four domains and the KPI and OKR model governs the programme portfolio around EUR 6m. Those are the delivered artefacts. What they are worth depends on decisions the client makes with them, which is not ours to claim.
15%
Reduction in forecast bias
Delivered
EUR 6m
Strategic programmes under the KPI and OKR model
Delivered
4
Domains covered: sales, operations, finance, customer engagement
Delivered
This note covers Analytics and performance framework, recorded in the firm’s track record.